2020 Iowa Caucus, Shambaugh Conference

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2020 Iowa Caucus Conference

February 1 - 3, 2020
Schaeffer Hall, The University of Iowa

Hosted by: Caroline Tolbert


Due to space constraints, the conference is not open to the public.




Momentum, Early Voting States and US Presidential Primaries

Todd Donovan (WWU, Bellingham) “Early Polls in Presidential Nomination Contests: Worth less, Except When Worth More”

Michael McDonald (University of Florida) “The Geography of Democratic Candidate Support in the Iowa Caucuses” McDonald paper

Hans Noel (Georgetown University) “The Evolving Invisible Primary”

Chris Wlezien (University of Texas, Austin) “Iowa and the National Democratic Race: What’s (Been) Going On?”


Primary Divisions — Ideology, Policy and Race/Ethnicity

Alan Abramowitz (Emory University) “Candidate Ideology and Electability in the 2020 Presidential Election” Abramowitz presentation

Matt Barreto (UCLA), Sergio Garcia-Rios (Cornell University) and Angela X. Ocampo (University of Michigan) “Disentangling policy preference and anti-Trump sentiment in 2020 Latino Democratic primary vote”

Alex Theodoridis (University of California, Merced) “Primary Divisions: How Voters Evaluate Policy and Non-Policy Differences Between Co-party Politicians” Theodoridis paper


The New Normal? Money, Donations, Jobs and Turnout

David Magelby (BYU) “Money in the 2020 Presidential Nomination Contest” Magelby Paper

Silvia Kim (Caltech/American University) “Do Critical Campaign Events Influence Contributions?”

Lonna Atkeson (University of New Mexico) “Democratic Primary Voting in 2016: The Role of Manufacturing”

Chris Karpowitz (BYU) and Jeremy Pope (BYU) “Who Caucuses, Revisited: Public Expectations and Participation in the Nominating Process”


Who Likes Who and Why?

David Peterson (Iowa State University) “The Dynamics of Iowa Democrats’ Preferences”

Michael Lewis-Beck (University of Iowa), John Kenny, Jac Larner, Sofia Breitenstein Gomis, and Dieter Stiers “Candidate Authenticity in the Iowa Caucus”

Peter Hanson (Grinnell College) “The Dynamics of Support for Leading Democrats: Findings from the Grinnell College National Poll”


Gender and Presidential Candidates

Barbara Norrander (University of Arizona) “The Gender Gaps in Presidential Nominations”

Barry Burden (University of Wisconsin) “Ignorance is Bliss? Age, Misinformation, and Support for Women’s Representation”

Courtney Juelich (University of Iowa) and Joseph Coll (University of Iowa) “Candidate Bias based on age, gender and sexuality: A Survey experiment using vignettes.”

Cynthia Terrell (RepresentWomen) “Women and the Presidency” Terrell paper


The Past and the Future

Steven Schier (Carleton College) “Present at the Beginning: Examining My Iowa Caucus Analysis Forty Years Later” Schier paper

Bryce J. Dietrich (University of Iowa) “Assessing Attitude Strength Using the Audio from Open-Ended Questions From Telephone, In-Person, and Online Surveys”

Rob Richie (Fairvote) “Lessons from Building Ranked Choice Voting into the 2020 Presidential Nomination Contest”


Special Presentations

David Redlawsk (University of Delaware) “Soaking and Poking in the 2020 Iowa Caucuses”

Seth Masket (University of Denver) “Picking a Lesson: Post-2016 Election Narratives and their Effect on 2020”

John Aldrich (Duke University), Jim Granato (University of Houston), Arvind Krishnamurthy (Duke University), and M.C. Sunny Wong (University of Houston) “Iowa?  New Hampshire?  Just being early? Theory and evidence from 40 years of presidential nomination campaigns”